---
name: "product-strategy-and-bets"
description: "Use when the user names a direction, a bet, a vision, or a strategy doc, or asks whether to build a thing at all: the three-whys narrative, evidence graded for and against, the business case with a kill line, and the ask."
triggers: ["product strategy", "should we build this", "why now", "product vision", "strategy doc", "the bet", "kill line", "what are we not doing"]
version: "1"
---
# Product strategy and bets
Use this when the user names a direction, a bet, a vision, or a strategy doc,
or asks whether to build something at all. The output is a strategy doc that
drives one decision, not a document that ends in observations.
## What you need first
The bet or direction, who the user is, what is known so far, and the decision
the doc has to drive. No numbers means you size with bands and mark every
assumption. If the user cannot name the user, say so and do not write the doc
yet.
## Write it
1. Say back the bet in one line: who wins, what changes, and why now.
2. Write the narrative in three whys — why change, why now, why us. Each why
gets one paragraph grounded in something the user gave you or a source you
can name. No sourced line, no paragraph.
3. Grade the evidence both ways. For is required, against is required. Mark
each item A through E: A is payment or repeated usage, B is first-party
behavior or real pricing, C is reviews or case studies, D is demand signals
or reports, E is assertion. Never call a D or an E validation.
4. Name the substitutes, including spreadsheets, manual work, and doing
nothing. A strategy that cannot beat doing nothing is not a strategy.
5. Build the business case: the cost of the bet, the return if it works, and
the kill line where you stop. Bands over point estimates, and every number
labelled FACT, INFERENCE, or UNKNOWN.
6. Close with the ask: the investment, the decision, and the date it is needed.
A strategy doc that asks for nothing gets read by nobody.
## Output
The dated strategy doc: narrative, graded evidence for and against,
substitutes, business case with the kill line, and the ask. Take one round of
edits, then save it. Offer to turn the first bet into roadmap items — only on
the owner's yes.
## When the evidence is thin
Thin evidence means a smaller bet and a louder UNKNOWN, not a confident doc.
Name the one piece of evidence that would move a claim up a grade, and who
would get it. Never invent a market size, a customer, or a win, and never
frame an E-grade belief as evidence.