earnings-preview
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npx mdskill add anthropics/financial-services/earnings-previewGenerate pre-earnings analysis with estimates and scenarios.
- Helps traders prepare positioning notes before quarterly reports.
- Depends on web search tools for consensus estimates and dates.
- Decides scenarios by comparing revenue, EPS, and margins.
- Delivers structured frameworks with bull and bear price impacts.
SKILL.md
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--- name: earnings-preview description: Build pre-earnings analysis with estimate models, scenario frameworks, and key metrics to watch. Use before a company reports quarterly earnings to prepare positioning notes, set up bull/bear scenarios, and identify what will move the stock. Triggers on "earnings preview", "what to watch for [company] earnings", "pre-earnings", "earnings setup", or "preview Q[X] for [company]". --- # Earnings Preview ## Workflow ### Step 1: Gather Context - Identify the company and reporting quarter - Pull consensus estimates via web search (revenue, EPS, key segment metrics) - Find the earnings date and time (pre-market vs. after-hours) - Review the company's prior quarter earnings call for any guidance or commentary ### Step 2: Key Metrics Framework Build a "what to watch" framework specific to the company: **Financial Metrics:** - Revenue vs. consensus (total and by segment) - EPS vs. consensus - Margins (gross, operating, net) — expanding or contracting? - Free cash flow - Forward guidance vs. consensus **Operational Metrics** (sector-specific): - Tech/SaaS: ARR, net retention, RPO, customer count - Retail: Same-store sales, traffic, basket size - Industrials: Backlog, book-to-bill, price vs. volume - Financials: NIM, credit quality, loan growth, fee income - Healthcare: Scripts, patient volumes, pipeline updates ### Step 3: Scenario Analysis Build 3 scenarios with stock price implications: | Scenario | Revenue | EPS | Key Driver | Stock Reaction | |----------|---------|-----|------------|----------------| | Bull | | | | | | Base | | | | | | Bear | | | | | For each scenario: - What would need to happen operationally - What management commentary would signal this - Historical context — how has the stock moved on similar prints? ### Step 4: Catalyst Checklist Identify the 3-5 things that will determine the stock's reaction: 1. [Metric] vs. [consensus/whisper number] — why it matters 2. [Guidance item] — what the buy-side expects to hear 3. [Narrative shift] — any strategic changes, M&A, restructuring ### Step 5: Output One-page earnings preview with: - Company, quarter, earnings date - Consensus estimates table - Key metrics to watch (ranked by importance) - Bull/base/bear scenario table - Catalyst checklist - Trading setup: recent stock performance, implied move from options ## Important Notes - Consensus estimates change — always note the source and date of estimates - "Whisper numbers" from buy-side surveys are often more relevant than published consensus - Historical earnings reactions help calibrate expectations (search for "[company] earnings reaction history") - Options-implied move tells you what the market expects — compare to your scenarios
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