options-advanced
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npx mdskill add HKUDS/Vibe-Trading/options-advancedModel complex volatility dynamics to execute advanced, multi-dimensional options trades.
- Identifies arbitrage opportunities by analyzing abnormal volatility surface shapes.
- Requires knowledge of implied volatility models like SABR and local volatility.
- Rebalances portfolio exposures beyond simple Delta hedging across strikes and terms.
- Delivers structured trade recommendations based on surface analysis and Greek management.
SKILL.md
.github/skills/options-advancedView on GitHub ↗
--- name: options-advanced description: "Advanced options strategies: volatility-surface modeling (SABR / Local Vol), dynamic Greeks rebalancing, calendar spreads, volatility arbitrage and skew trading, and option market-making basics." category: asset-class --- # Advanced Options Strategies ## Overview Go beyond basic option strategies (`covered call` / `protective put`) and focus on trading opportunities along the volatility dimension. Core idea: option price = intrinsic value + time value, and advanced trading essentially trades the volatility expectations embedded behind that time value. Applicable scenarios: - Identifying arbitrage opportunities when the volatility surface is abnormal (`skew` / `term structure`) - Fine-grained management of portfolio Greeks exposures (not just Delta hedging) - Building structured strategies across maturities and strikes - Practical application in 50ETF / 300ETF / commodity options ## Core Concepts ### Volatility Surface Three-dimensional structure: strike × expiry × implied volatility. **Key dimensions**: | Dimension | Meaning | Typical Shape | |------|------|----------| | Smile / Skew | IV across strikes for the same expiry | China A-shares: left-skewed (`put IV > call IV`) | | Term Structure | IV across expiries for the same strike | Normal case: near-month IV < far-month IV | | Surface dynamics | Parallel or nonlinear movement of the entire surface | In panic, the whole surface lifts, and near-month IV lifts faster | **SABR model parameters**: ``` α (alpha): initial volatility level, around 0.2-0.5 β (beta): CEV exponent, equities usually use 0.5-1.0 ρ (rho): correlation between volatility and the underlying, usually -0.3 to -0.7 in China A-shares (negative = left skew) ν (nu): volatility of volatility (vol of vol), around 0.3-0.8 ``` **Local Vol vs SABR**: - Local Vol (Dupire): backed out from market prices, exact fit but unstable extrapolation - SABR: parameterized model, 4 parameters capture surface dynamics and extrapolate more reasonably ### Dynamic Greeks Management **First-order Greeks**: | Greek | Meaning | Management Approach | |-------|------|----------| | Delta (Δ) | Sensitivity to underlying price | Hedge frequency: daily for ATM, every 2-3 days for OTM | | Vega (ν) | Sensitivity to IV | Calendar spreads can isolate Vega exposure | | Theta (Θ) | Time decay | Short-option strategies are naturally positive Theta, but watch Gamma risk | | Rho (ρ) | Sensitivity to rates | Relevant for long-dated options, usually ignorable for short-dated options | **Second-order Greeks**: | Greek | Meaning | Key Scenario | |-------|------|----------| | Gamma (Γ) | Rate of change of Delta | Highest near ATM and spikes before expiry | | Vanna | Sensitivity of Delta to IV | Core Greek for skew trading | | Volga / Vomma | Sensitivity of Vega to IV | Important when volatility moves sharply | **Delta hedge frequency decision**: ``` Hedging cost = trading frequency × slippage per rebalance Unhedged risk = Gamma exposure × underlying volatility² Optimal frequency (Zakamouline criterion): Trigger hedge when Gamma × S² × σ² × Δt > 2 × transaction_cost Practical rule: ATM Gamma is large -> hedge daily; OTM -> hedge weekly or on threshold triggers ``` ## Analysis Framework ### 1. Calendar Spread **Principle**: sell the near-month option and buy the far-month option at the same strike, profiting from faster near-month Theta decay. **Entry conditions**: - Normal term structure (`near-month IV ≤ far-month IV`) - Expect the underlying to stay in a narrow range - Open the position 20-30 days before near-month expiry **50ETF example**: ``` Underlying: 50ETF current price 2.80 Sell: 50ETF near-month C2800 IV=18%, collect premium 0.045 Buy: 50ETF far-month C2800 IV=20%, pay premium 0.082 Net debit: 0.037 (max loss) Breakeven: profit if the underlying stays in the 2.76-2.84 range at near-month expiry Max profit: when near-month expires with the underlying right at 2.80, roughly 0.045 minus the time-decay differential ``` **Risk-control points**: - Large breakout in the underlying → stop loss (if loss exceeds 50% of net debit) - Near-month IV suddenly rises above far-month IV (term-structure inversion) → close position ### 2. Volatility Arbitrage **Long Gamma strategy** (buy volatility): ``` Scenario: realized volatility is expected to exceed implied volatility Trade: buy ATM straddle + Delta hedge Profit source: Gamma-scalping gains > Theta decay Key metric: Breakeven volatility = IV + Theta/Gamma cost Example in 300ETF: buy straddle at IV=16%; if realized volatility >18%, the trade is profitable ``` **Short Gamma strategy** (sell volatility): ``` Scenario: realized volatility is expected to stay below implied volatility Trade: sell ATM straddle + Delta hedge Profit source: Theta income > hedging loss Risk control: set max loss = 2x premium received, close when hit ``` ### 3. Skew Trade **Risk Reversal**: ``` Scenario: skew is too steep (put IV excessively high relative to call IV) Trade: sell OTM put + buy OTM call (zero-cost or slight net credit) Exposure: long skew (profit if skew mean-reverts) 50ETF example: Sell P2700 IV=22% collect 0.025 Buy C2900 IV=16% pay 0.018 Net credit 0.007, profiting from skew mean reversion ``` **Butterfly skew trade**: ``` Scenario: localized skew abnormality (IV deviation at a particular strike) Trade: build a butterfly centered on the abnormal strike If IV is too high -> sell that strike (middle leg of the butterfly) If IV is too low -> buy that strike ``` ### 4. Option Market-Making Basics **Quoting strategy**: - Bid-ask spread = `f(Gamma risk, inventory skew, market volatility)` - Narrow spreads attract flow; wider spreads protect risk - Inventory-skew management: if Delta exceeds the limit, tilt quotes to induce the other side to offset inventory **Inventory management**: ``` Delta limit: ±500 underlying-equivalent lots Gamma limit: daily Gamma PnL should not exceed 2% of account equity Vega limit: PnL from a 1% IV move should not exceed 1% of account equity When over the limit: hedge in the market first, adjust quotes second ``` ## Output Format Volatility analysis report: ``` === Volatility Surface Analysis === Underlying: 50ETF Current price: 2.80 ATM IV: 18.5% Historical percentile: 35% (relatively low) Skew (25D): -3.2% (put IV is 3.2% higher than call IV) Historical percentile: 70% (relatively steep) Term Structure: normal (near-month 17.8% < far-month 19.2%) === Strategy Recommendation === Opportunity: steep skew + low IV Strategy: Risk Reversal (sell put / buy call) + Calendar Spread Expectation: skew mean reversion + mild IV rise Risk control: keep Delta neutral, keep Gamma within ±200 lots === Greeks Monitoring === Portfolio Delta: +15 (neutral) Portfolio Gamma: -180 (short Gamma, watch gap risk) Portfolio Vega: +3200 (long Vega, benefits from higher IV) Portfolio Theta: -450 / day ``` ## Notes 1. **China A-share option characteristics**: liquidity in 50ETF / 300ETF options is concentrated in near-month ATM ± 3 strikes; deep OTM and far-month options are illiquid and have large slippage 2. **Margin management**: short-option margin changes dynamically with the underlying; keep >30% buffer to avoid margin calls 3. **Expiry-week effect**: Gamma rises sharply during the week before expiry, Pin Risk increases, and short-option traders should reduce size early 4. **Market-making barrier**: real market making requires high-frequency infrastructure, low latency, and professional risk controls; retail traders should not attempt pure market making 5. **SABR calibration**: calibrate parameters daily after the close with market data, then use prior-day parameters plus real-time adjustment at the open 6. **Gamma scalping PnL**: actual profit = `0.5 × Gamma × (RV² - IV²) × S² × T`; realized volatility must exceed IV by a meaningful margin to cover transaction costs ## Dependencies ```bash pip install pandas numpy scipy ```