occurrence-scoring

$npx mdskill add yogsoth-ai/de-anthropocentric-research-engine/occurrence-scoring

Rates failure modes' occurrence probability on a 1-10 scale for research execution

  • Identifies and categorizes potential failure modes in research.
  • Depends on probabilistic reasoning to estimate likelihood of each mode.
  • Uses cause chains to assess root cause probabilities independently of severity.
  • Delivers occurrence scores and uncertainty flags directly to the user or agent.

SKILL.md

.github/skills/occurrence-scoringView on GitHub ↗
---
name: occurrence-scoring
description: Rate failure mode occurrence probability 1-10. Estimates how likely each failure mode is to manifest during research execution.
execution: subagent
prompt: ./prompt.md
input: failure_modes (string), chains (string)
used-by: [failure-anticipation]
---

# Occurrence Scoring

Rates each failure mode's occurrence probability on a 1-10 scale.

## Execution

Subagent — spawned via subagent-spawning/spawn-agent.

## Why Subagent

Occurrence estimation requires probabilistic reasoning isolated from severity and detection considerations. Prevents halo effects.

## Input

- **failure_modes**: Failure mode catalog
- **chains**: Cause chains (for root cause probability assessment)

## Output

- **scores**: List of (failure_mode_id, occurrence_score, justification)
- **uncertainty_flags**: Modes where occurrence is highly uncertain

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